House Race Ratings (AL – MT)

Race Ratings

(Alabama – Montana)

Dem Favored

AZ 5 – Mitchell (D)

CT 2 – Courtney (D)

IL 8 – Bean (D)

Likely Dem

AL 5 – Open Seat (Cramer – D)

AZ 1 – Open Seat (Renzi – R)

CA 11 – McNerney (D)

CT 5 – Murphy (D)

IL 14 – Foster (D)

KY 3 – Yarmuth (D)

MN 1 – Walz (D)

Leans Dem

AZ 8 – Giffords (D)

FL 24 – Feeney (R) **

GA 8 – Marshall (D)

IL 11 – Open Seat (Weller- R) **

IN 9 – Hill (D)

KS 2 – Boyda (D)

KS 3 – Moore (D)

LA 4 – Open Seat (McCrery – R) **

MI 7 – Walberg (R) **

MS 1 – Childers (D)

Too Close to Call

CT 4 – Shays (R)

FL 16 – Mahoney (D)

FL 21 – Diaz-Balart, Lincoln (R)

KY 2 – Open Seat (Lewis – R)

LA 6 – Cazayoux (D)

MD 1 – Open Seat (Gilchrest – R)

MI 9 – Knollenberg (R)

MN 3 – Open Seat (Ramstad – R)

MO 6 – Graves (R)

Leans Rep

AL 2 – Open Seat (Everett – R)

CA 4 – Open Seat (Doolittle – R)

FL 25 – Diaz-Balart, Mario (R)

ID 1 – Sali (R)

IL 10 – Kirk (R)

IL 18 – LaHood (R)

Likely Rep

AL 3 – Rogers (R)

AZ 3 – Shadegg (R)

CA 50 – Bilbray (R)

CO 4 – Musgrave (R)

FL 8 – Keller (R)

FL 13 – Buchanan (R)

FL 18 – Ros-Lehtinen (R)

IL 6 – Roskam (R)

IA 4 – Latham (R)

LA 7 – Boustany (R)

MN 6 – Bachmann (R)

Rep Favored

CA 3 – Lungren (R)

CA 26 – Dreier (R)

CA 41 – Lewis (R)

CA 46 – Rohrbacher (R)

CA 52 – Open Seat (Hunter – R)

CO 5 – Lamborn (R)

FL 5 – Brown-Waite (R)

FL 9 – Bilirakis (R)

FL 10 – Young (R)

FL 14 – Mack (R)

FL 15 – Open Seat (Weldon – R)

IL 13 – Biggert (R)

IN 3 – Souder (R)

IN 4 – Buyer (R)

MN 2 – Kline (R)

**Ratings for Alaska – AL are not included (dependent more or less on whether Young survives an inter-party challenge).  Ratings for MO – 9, an open seat, are also not included (dependent on whom is the Democratic nominee).

Dem Seat Gains – Feeney, McCrery, Renzi, Walberg, and Weller.

Dem Seats most at Risk – Cazayoux and Mahoney.

***Details for each race are explained on an additional diary following this one.***

I would also like to mention three Democratic candidates that I feel have been underestimated, either due to low fundraising on their part or a lack of analyzing specific races.  In analyzing the district and candidate against the incumbent, I have determined that these could indeed be far more competitive races than currently noted by most experts.  These races are in the following districts:

FL 15 – Open Seat (Weldon)

IN 4 – Buyer

IA 4 – Latham

**If you have any questions or disagreements regarding any of these predictions then please note them on the message board and I will follow up to explain what was my determing factor.